Analysts predict Zanu PF victory in February

Staff Reporter

Zimbabwe's political landscape seems tilted significantly in ZANU PF's favour as the February 3, 2024 by-elections approach, with six constituencies up for grabs.

By-elections are set to be held in Pelandaba, Mkoba North, Chegutu West, Zvimba East, Goromonzi South, and Seke.

Riding a wave of recent victories on the 9 December by-elections, the ruling Party's internal primaries today for the six vacant constituencies, are generating a buzz of confidence while analysts paint a bleak picture for the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) led by Nelson Chamisa.

The weekend's by-elections witnessed Zanu PF's dominance, claiming six out of eight contested parliamentary seats and trouncing CCC in rural strongholds.

This momentum fuelled by decisive wins in Lupane East and Binga North has emboldened party faithful and left political analysts predicting a clean sweep in February 2024.

Professor Jonathan Moyo, a renowned political commentator, on his official page on X, aptly captures the CCC's current predicament as a "Triple Challenge."

He described CCC as caught between engagement, disengagement, and even a possible identity overhaul, as he said the opposition appeared paralyzed by indecision.

“Following the 9 December 2023 by-elections, and in the run-up to the sitting of the Nomination Court on 18 December 2023 to receive nomination papers of candidates for 3 February 2024 by-elections, CCC led by Nelson Chamisa has emerged with a potentially crippling Triple Challenge,” said Prof Moyo
Furthemore, Prof Moyo highlighted how CCC was now in a conundrum due to the recalled MPs and councillors barred from running under their banner.  He aptly described how this left them in a political limbo, fuelling speculation about potential defections and further fracturing the opposition's base.

“Meanwhile, it is now out of the question that the recalled MPs/Councillors can use the CCC banner, ticket or jacket to seek re-election in any by-election for the seats from which they have been recalled. There are now only four options left for such MPs/Councillors: boycott the by-election; contest as independent candidates or contest under a new colour!” said Moyo.

Additionally, beyond ZANU PF's internal energy, Chamisa's leadership is facing intense scrutiny. Critics point to his perceived lack of strategic direction and failure to capitalize on pockets of discontent with the ruling party. The "yellow fever" of the CCC, once seen as a potent force, appears to be waning, replaced by confusion and a sense of stagnation.

While acknowledging the CCC's victories in Bulawayo's local government elections, analysts contend that this urban stronghold cannot compensate for the rural losses and internal turmoil. Chamisa's failure to consolidate support across the country and effectively respond to ZANU PF's advances seems to be sealing his fate for February.

Meanwhile, as February draws closer, the political wind seems firmly in ZANU PF's favour. Chamisa's leadership, facing both internal and external challenges, appears increasingly unable to steer the opposition ship out of troubled waters.