by Innocent Mujeri
About a week ago, the MDC formation led by Nelson Chamisa launched an ambitious voter registration campaign targeting at least one million new first time voters in preparation for the coming 2023 elections.
The MDC-Alliance said the one million targeted voters were meant to add to the over two million votes Chamisa garnered in 2018.
The MDC-Alliance Youth Assembly Secretary General, Gift Ostallos Siziba was quoted by the media saying that their party had resolved to “launch one million youth campaign in all provinces as a harbinger of a radically different Youth Assembly.” Siziba was again quoted saying that the MDC-Alliance had resolved to “take back the Youth Assembly back to the rural areas, with the main focus on rural youth mobilization, voter education and economic empowerment programs.” In short, the MDC has decided to go rural and recruit mainly the youths to vote for that party in the next elections.
But is the MDC-Alliance setting themselves realistic targets? Will they be able to mobilize one million first time voters? Will they be able to penetrate the rural areas? There are many reasons why the MDC-Alliance’s mobilization campaign is likely to suffer a stillbirth.
Rural areas are strong holds of ZANU PF
The MDC-Alliance said their mobilization campaign would mainly focus on the rural areas. This is the first mistake which that party is going to do. It is known that over the years, the opposition has performed dismally in rural areas. This is mainly because people in rural areas still have vivid memories of the war and they know that it is ZANU PF that brought them freedom; hence they can’t give their allegiance to a “born free” political party. The rural people and ZANU PF have a relationship that dates back to the days of the liberation struggle and these people view any other party other than ZANU PF as a traitor that should not be supported.
Coming to previous elections, the rural people has totally rejected the MDC in all its various formations. For instance, during the previous elections, the MDC-Alliance candidate for Guruve South constituency, Angeline Dube garnered a paltry 1 758 votes against ZANU PF’s Patrick Dutiro’s 17 103 votes. In Gutu West constituency, John Paradza of ZANU PF won by 14 139 votes against MDC-Alliance’s Manguma Stanley who got only 2 998 votes. To think that the rural people who have been overwhelmingly voting for ZANU PF in the past will suddenly switch their allegiance to the MDC-Alliance is the same as expecting a paw paw tree to bear banana fruits. What the MDC-Alliance could have done is to try and consolidate their shrinking support base in the urban centres than wasting time soliciting for votes from the rural people.
The MDC-Alliance has no message for the people
What makes political parties win an election is not the stature of the candidate, but the message that these parties deliver to the electorate. Over the years, the MDC has failed to craft a political message that resonates with the electorate. Instead, the MDC has used the political pulpit to mock and humiliate the very people they expect a vote from them. From Morgan Tsvangirai to Chamisa, the MDC has failed to deliver a meaningful message to the people. Imagine this: “Murikuti mukushaya? Muchashaisisa.” That was Tsvangirai for you. Rubbing salt on the wounds of the very same people he wants a vote from.
The biggest undoing of the MDC-Alliance members is the stage. Whenever these people are near a microphone, they will start speaking of issues that do not speak to the needs and wants of the voters. People always vote for a party that has a message which resonates with them. No sane people will vote for a party that promises to construct an airport for the rural people when the same people are in need of just a borehole. No one will cast his vote for a party that has a leader who pledges his sister to a political opponent.
If the MDC-Alliance wants to be taken seriously by Zimbabweans, they should stop lying to the electorate as what Chamisa did in 2018, when he spoke about the 15 billion US dollars from Donald Trump. The opposition should also stop talking of spaghetti roads, when we still have a rural road that only needs to be fixed to be passable. The Zimbabwean people are literate and wise enough to see that the message from the MDC-Alliance is just a pie in the air. What they promise when they are on the political pulpit will not come to fruition even if they ever come to power.
The death of the MDC-Alliance and continuous infighting
Whatever votes the MDC-Alliance got in 2018, they were votes from members of seven political parties that formed the alliance. Chamisa was a beneficiary of the protest votes the National Patriotic Front who had been booted out of ZANU PF. However, some parties like Transform Zimbabwe of Jacob Ngarivhume have since withdrawn from the Alliance.
What is also going to frustrate the MDC-Alliance’s one million voter mobilization campaign is infighting within that party’s leadership. There is no unity within that party’s ranks. There are reports that Tendai Biti is planning to go it alone in 2023 and Welshman Ncube is reportedly frustrated with how he is being sidelined and not being given the respect of a vice president by Chamisa. It is therefore likely that the frustration of Ncube and the continuous fight between Chamisa and Khupe will make it difficult to mobilize in the Matabeleland regions.
You can’t go to the people empty handed
Voter mobilization is akin to proposing a girl. A girl needs to be charmed with goodies and other things to lure her into accepting your proposal. A girl cannot be turned on with the “I love you” words. This is what the MDC-Alliance is doing to the people.They are going to the people with nothing except a tired message that “ZANU PF must go”. The electorate needs tangible things that can transform their livelihoods.
To make matters worse, the MDC-Alliance is planning to mobilize in areas where people have been empowered by ZANU PF through the Presidential Input scheme, Command Agriculture and Pfumvudza.The MDC is going to the people whose children have been freely educated by the ZANU PF-led Government through programmes like BEAM, STEM and the Presidential Scholarship Scheme. I don’t think the electorate will be that foolish to abandon what they have in pursuit of a promise that might not be fulfilled. In short, the MDC has nothing to offer to the people and this might cost them the votes they desperately need. What is the MDC-Alliance offering to the electorate which is better than what is being offered by ZANU PF?
Gutu’s sanctions revelation
Recently, the former MDC-T spokesperson Obert Gutu came in the open and apologized for the role he played in begging for the sanctions to be imposed on Zimbabwe. Although Gutu is no longer a member of the opposition, his confession has opened eyes of the Zimbabwean people to see that their real enemy is the MDC that called for sanctions. When the MDC-Alliance embarks on their recruitment drive, they are likely to be asked why they called for sanctions on Zimbabwe. They are also likely to be asked when they will denounce the illegal sanctions that have caused devastating effects to the people of Zimbabwe. I don’t think the people of Zimbabwe are that naïve to join a party that has caused them to suffer. Until the day they denounce sanctions and call for their removal, the MDC is likely to find it difficult to mobilize and register new voters.
One is allowed to dream, but the dreams must be realistic. We will wait and see if the one million voter mobilization will be a success. But I foresee the MDC-Alliance support base shrinking in 2023 because of the reasons mentioned above.
